Crypto Isn’t Broken, It’s A US Liquidity Squeeze, Says Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal is pushing back on the idea that crypto’s current drawdown signals a broken market cycle, arguing instead that bitcoin and high-beta risk are being hit by a temporary US liquidity air pocket tied to Treasury cash management and government shutdown dynamics. In a weekend post on X framed as a takedown of “false narratives,” the Global Macro Investor founder said the prevailing story—“that BTC and crypto are broken. The cycle is over”—has become an “alluring narrative trap,” especially as “prices [are] puking each and every fucking day.” But Pal said a separate question from a GMI....
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As the latest US government shutdown ends and markets refocus on macro plumbing, Raoul Pal has sketched out a strikingly liquidity-heavy roadmap on X – one that, in his framework, has direct implications for crypto. “So now the US Gov has reopened, what’s next?” Pal asks. He immediately points to the Treasury General Account (TGA): “Expect a few days for TGA spending to begin to significantly add to liquidity and should persist for several months.Obviously, QT ends in Dec and the balance sheet will crawl higher. We should see the dollar begin to weaken again.” Mechanically, TGA....
Trading at $48,747 with a 1.1% profit in the past day, Bitcoin remains rangebound. The first crypto by market cap has been unable to break from the $45,500 to $49,500 channel in the last 7-days, but a combination of factors could increase volatility soon. Related Reading | TA: Bitcoin Gains Momentum, Why Rally Isn’t Over Yet NewsBTC has been reporting on the possibility of a short squeeze for Bitcoin. The recent price action was most likely the result of the post-crash as the market needed time to form a range, and institutions de-risked their positions. Large players are now....
What to Know: There is a large concentration of liquidity above the current $BTC price, suggesting a short squeeze could be in the making. The “Coinbase premium” for Bitcoin (the premium or differential of Bitcoin’s price on the U.S. exchange Coinbase relative to global exchanges) is rising – signifying stronger U.S. institutional and retail demand. A $BTC short squeeze could make Bitcoin Hyper the best crypto to buy with its Layer 2 upgrade. With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around $110K, a perfect storm of technical signals and macro tailwinds is building — potentially priming the world’s....
Market expert Raoul Pal has commented on the possibility of an altcoin season using what he described as the ‘Crypto Waiting Room.’ He claimed that many altcoins are preparing for a parabolic rally, led by Ethereum, SOL, and XRP. Ethereum is Already On A “Full Port” While XRP Is In The Process In an X […]
Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle is not nearing a peak but entering a longer, more powerful expansion that can run well into 2026, driven by a global liquidity uptrend tied to government debt dynamics. In a special Sept. 25 “Everything Code” masterclass with Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel, the Real Vision co-founder laid out a tightly interlocked framework connecting demographics, debt, liquidity and the business cycle to asset returns—arguing that crypto and tech remain the only asset classes structurally capable of outpacing what he calls the hidden....